No end to Yemen war in sight as Saudi Arabia, Iran lock horns
Al Monitor, March 14, 2018
The war
in Yemen drags on even as it continues to bleed Saudi Arabia while increasing
international pressure on Iran.
in Yemen drags on even as it continues to bleed Saudi Arabia while increasing
international pressure on Iran.
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| Saudi soldiers stand in line at an airfield where Saudi military cargo planes land to deliver aid, Marib, Yemen, Jan. 26, 2018. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser |
As the
Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen nears its third year, the war doesn’t seem
to be coming to an end anytime soon. The internal strife between Iranian-backed
Ansar Allah, more commonly known as the Houthi movement, and the
Saudi-supported government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is no longer at
the core of the struggle. Rather, the center lies in the heart of the broader
confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In this battle, the Saudis are
ready to raise the stakes and continue their war even as the desired outcome
remains elusive. Meanwhile, the Iranians are much more comfortable seeing their
bitter rivals drowning in the Yemeni quagmire. At the same time, Iran is coming
under international pressure that is bringing its ballistic missile program
under scrutiny.
Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen nears its third year, the war doesn’t seem
to be coming to an end anytime soon. The internal strife between Iranian-backed
Ansar Allah, more commonly known as the Houthi movement, and the
Saudi-supported government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is no longer at
the core of the struggle. Rather, the center lies in the heart of the broader
confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In this battle, the Saudis are
ready to raise the stakes and continue their war even as the desired outcome
remains elusive. Meanwhile, the Iranians are much more comfortable seeing their
bitter rivals drowning in the Yemeni quagmire. At the same time, Iran is coming
under international pressure that is bringing its ballistic missile program
under scrutiny.
While many
might ask whether Tehran and Riyadh might one day head toward a win-win
regional settlement, the outcome of the Yemeni war is proving day after day
that both sides are not winning but are rather mired in a lose-lose situation
that is draining the two regional powers in different arenas. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia is the one paying more money and is directly involved in the war,
while Iran’s main cost in Yemen is the additional international pressure for
backing its Ansar Allah allies with weaponry and expertise without being
directly involved in the fight.
might ask whether Tehran and Riyadh might one day head toward a win-win
regional settlement, the outcome of the Yemeni war is proving day after day
that both sides are not winning but are rather mired in a lose-lose situation
that is draining the two regional powers in different arenas. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia is the one paying more money and is directly involved in the war,
while Iran’s main cost in Yemen is the additional international pressure for
backing its Ansar Allah allies with weaponry and expertise without being
directly involved in the fight.
The main Saudi problem in the Yemeni war remains the lack of new strategies and
tactics; the mounting number of civilian casualties, which is becoming a human
rights nightmare for the kingdom and its Western allies; and the fact that many
other wars are being fought in parallel, prompting a recent report by Chatham
House to warn that Yemen has become a “chaos state.” A March 6 report by the
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) explained that the
Yemenis are facing
multiple crises, including armed conflict, displacement, risk of
famine and the outbreaks of diseases including cholera — creating the
world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The report stated, “An escalation of
hostilities in late 2017 resulted in new displacement, precluded safe return
and increased demands on UNHCR’s emergency response capacity, with more than 2
million people displaced. Protection space for 280,000 refugees and asylum
seekers also continues to shrink, resulting in severe protection gaps. Refugees
are at heightened risk of exploitation in the absence of livelihood opportunities
and increasing aid-dependency.”
Saudi
Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regards the Yemeni war as his
own, and any success thus as his signature. Conversely, any failure will put a
dark stain on his credibility as a leader aiming for the throne. To the
Iranians, the more the Saudis are stuck in the quagmire, the more Prince
Mohammed will be vulnerable, and this will have a bigger implication on the
Saudi role in the region, which Iran sees as floundering. To Tehran, the latter
was clearly reflected in the ongoing Gulf crisis with Qatar, the alleged forced
resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri while in Saudi Arabia last
November, and the attempt in Yemen to divide former President Ali Abdullah
Saleh from Ansar Allah, which ended tragically with the Houthis killing their
former ally.
Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regards the Yemeni war as his
own, and any success thus as his signature. Conversely, any failure will put a
dark stain on his credibility as a leader aiming for the throne. To the
Iranians, the more the Saudis are stuck in the quagmire, the more Prince
Mohammed will be vulnerable, and this will have a bigger implication on the
Saudi role in the region, which Iran sees as floundering. To Tehran, the latter
was clearly reflected in the ongoing Gulf crisis with Qatar, the alleged forced
resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri while in Saudi Arabia last
November, and the attempt in Yemen to divide former President Ali Abdullah
Saleh from Ansar Allah, which ended tragically with the Houthis killing their
former ally.
Tehran’s
official stance on the war in Yemen has been reflected on several occasions by
its officials, mainly Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif, who has reiterated on several occasions that his
country has suggested a four-step initiative to solve the crisis, consisting of
an immediate cease-fire, humanitarian aid, intra-Yemeni talks and the formation
of an inclusive government. During the Tehran Security Conference in January,
Zarif explained Iran’s take on the Yemeni crisis, saying, “The continuance of
aggression against the oppressed people of Yemen, including indiscriminate
aerial raids and extensive war crimes against civilians, is another major
source of tension in the region. Following 33 months of a senseless bombing
campaign, the aggressors should have realized by now that this crisis has no
military solution and the parties to it have no way out other than engaging in
dialogue to reach a national consensus to resolve the crisis.”
official stance on the war in Yemen has been reflected on several occasions by
its officials, mainly Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif, who has reiterated on several occasions that his
country has suggested a four-step initiative to solve the crisis, consisting of
an immediate cease-fire, humanitarian aid, intra-Yemeni talks and the formation
of an inclusive government. During the Tehran Security Conference in January,
Zarif explained Iran’s take on the Yemeni crisis, saying, “The continuance of
aggression against the oppressed people of Yemen, including indiscriminate
aerial raids and extensive war crimes against civilians, is another major
source of tension in the region. Following 33 months of a senseless bombing
campaign, the aggressors should have realized by now that this crisis has no
military solution and the parties to it have no way out other than engaging in
dialogue to reach a national consensus to resolve the crisis.”
In this
vein, Tehran University professor Mohammad Marandi pushed back Saudi and US
claims that Iran is militarily involved in Yemen, telling Al-Monitor that it’s
physically impossible for Tehran to be engaged in the smuggling of ballistic
missiles. He said, “Taking into consideration the Western-backed Saudi siege,
which even prevents food from entering Yemen, when I see the Yemeni resistance
fighting the Western-backed Saudi aggressors with bare feet, it is obvious that
the reason the Saudis have failed isn’t the foreign support for Ansar Allah but
rather their [Ansar Allah’s] will to resist a much powerful yet unjust brutal
force.”
vein, Tehran University professor Mohammad Marandi pushed back Saudi and US
claims that Iran is militarily involved in Yemen, telling Al-Monitor that it’s
physically impossible for Tehran to be engaged in the smuggling of ballistic
missiles. He said, “Taking into consideration the Western-backed Saudi siege,
which even prevents food from entering Yemen, when I see the Yemeni resistance
fighting the Western-backed Saudi aggressors with bare feet, it is obvious that
the reason the Saudis have failed isn’t the foreign support for Ansar Allah but
rather their [Ansar Allah’s] will to resist a much powerful yet unjust brutal
force.”
A UN Security Council resolution on Yemen proposed by Britain that sought to
specifically condemn Iran was vetoed by
Russia on Feb. 26, preventing the international body from singling
out the Islamic Republic. Marandi added, “Western powers are guilty of the war
crimes committed in Yemen because they are the ones providing the Saudis with the
war machine that’s being used to kill the people of this poor country. Their
attempts are basically to distract people’s attention from the war crimes; they
want to portray Iran as the force behind the problem in Yemen while, in
reality, the problem isn’t Iran — not even Ansar Allah. It’s the massacre
and the deteriorating humanitarian situation.”
Despite
the differences over who or what should stop first — whether the Saudi-led
air campaign or the Iranian role in supporting Ansar Allah — it is clear
that the endgame in Yemen does not seem to be near. The only thing obvious in
this struggle is that more Yemenis will die while the whole world is watching.
the differences over who or what should stop first — whether the Saudi-led
air campaign or the Iranian role in supporting Ansar Allah — it is clear
that the endgame in Yemen does not seem to be near. The only thing obvious in
this struggle is that more Yemenis will die while the whole world is watching.
